Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 186.437268 228.111627 280.504616 352.625042 451.656515 5.865604e+02 7.911442e+02
2025-02-16 139.832424 187.205711 254.890190 363.372422 542.990225 8.504138e+02 1.477073e+03
2025-02-23 113.760678 161.773131 236.712691 371.058809 629.155272 1.168615e+03 2.648728e+03
2025-03-02 94.217432 139.625193 215.019593 361.727020 678.064513 1.460651e+03 4.320057e+03
2025-03-09 80.465867 123.113362 197.453883 352.096863 720.112240 1.782937e+03 7.027462e+03
2025-03-16 69.618314 109.151914 180.715371 337.726458 743.284803 2.086765e+03 1.108379e+04
2025-03-23 66.303758 107.528192 186.209331 372.652023 917.792933 3.179002e+03 3.112729e+04
2025-03-30 60.714695 100.722338 179.882335 377.867595 1012.047499 4.164651e+03 7.880470e+04
2025-04-06 56.915104 96.631373 178.196211 394.217264 1159.654468 5.895420e+03 3.549186e+05
2025-04-13 52.011069 89.648117 168.860853 386.892417 1215.925313 7.274545e+03 1.873974e+06
2025-04-20 50.666935 89.562271 174.884418 425.923531 1510.334151 1.259973e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 49.009408 88.559991 178.553754 459.898075 1833.854855 2.232384e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 46.873586 86.428153 179.541828 487.980564 2192.388229 4.221181e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 44.476378 83.412058 177.753892 506.413187 2540.679787 8.206184e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 42.096538 80.114885 174.581955 518.787260 2887.619829 1.711215e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 39.085801 75.010150 165.574511 504.324925 2990.449260 2.787559e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 36.398935 70.373305 157.131084 489.389525 3077.255699 4.737352e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 33.786575 65.650424 147.731825 467.196034 3061.095974 7.145564e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 33.541220 66.521321 154.588102 521.384604 4099.293952 2.941320e+07 NaN
2025-06-22 32.084887 64.287292 151.851420 529.546222 4604.620037 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 31.133313 63.195791 152.424715 555.244606 5545.827303 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 29.472409 60.159254 146.420520 543.710198 5787.943997 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 29.332209 60.972189 152.890455 605.562698 8095.261013 NaN NaN